Did a quick dive into the numbers on Miami and didn't want to dump it into the Jax State thread or general NCAA discussion so I'll kick off the game thread.
KenPom has us as an 8 point favorite and gives us a 77% chance to win this one. Just saw the opening line in vegas is Auburn -7.5 so they likely took that straight from KP. Between USC and Miami, the latter was the much more favorable matchup for us in efficiency ratings. Miami is 57th while USC was 41st. For comparison, TAMU is 45, Miss State is 48, UF is 55, and Vandy is 62.
Miami has a very good offense, ranked 17th. They were awful shooting today, but are 78th in the country in 3% on the season at 35.3. (virtually identical to USC so no advantage here between the possible opponents) They are 26th in 2% at 54.8%. They do not rely heavily on 3s with only 29% of their points coming from deep. They are elite at not turning the ball over ranking 8th in TO%. That's why they won the game today as thy had a 18-3 turnover advantage with 12 steals.
Where we will have a big advantage is going against Miami's defense which is very weak, ranking 152nd on KP. Bama put 96 on them in a 32 point beat down. UCF scored 95 in a win over them. They also took a 16 point loss to Akron allowing 76 points. They've also given up 80+ this year to bad/mediocre Syracuse, Wake and NC State teams. They are ranked 319th in opponent FG% at 53.5. The only thing they do well on D is steal the ball where they rank 10th nationally. Even if we are not shooting the ball great, our guards should be able to attack the basket and they don't have the size to keep Walker off the offensive glass. This would be a great game to revive our pick and roll game with Walker as well. Jabari should score nearly at will if he's feeling it as they don't have a guy remotely big or athletic enough to cover him.
Overall, I really like this matchup. Miami relies heavily on their guards attacking the basket to score which plays right into our defensive wheelhouse as the best shot blocking team in the country. This game sets up as a dream matchup for Walker. Triple doubles are obviously rare, but I will not be surprised at all if he has one here. They shoot a solid percentage from 3, but don't take enough normally to beat us shooting over our D. Biggest key for us will be our guards taking care of the ball just as they did today. I don't think Miami can beat us unless we turn it over a ton and give them easy buckets in transition.
KenPom has us as an 8 point favorite and gives us a 77% chance to win this one. Just saw the opening line in vegas is Auburn -7.5 so they likely took that straight from KP. Between USC and Miami, the latter was the much more favorable matchup for us in efficiency ratings. Miami is 57th while USC was 41st. For comparison, TAMU is 45, Miss State is 48, UF is 55, and Vandy is 62.
Miami has a very good offense, ranked 17th. They were awful shooting today, but are 78th in the country in 3% on the season at 35.3. (virtually identical to USC so no advantage here between the possible opponents) They are 26th in 2% at 54.8%. They do not rely heavily on 3s with only 29% of their points coming from deep. They are elite at not turning the ball over ranking 8th in TO%. That's why they won the game today as thy had a 18-3 turnover advantage with 12 steals.
Where we will have a big advantage is going against Miami's defense which is very weak, ranking 152nd on KP. Bama put 96 on them in a 32 point beat down. UCF scored 95 in a win over them. They also took a 16 point loss to Akron allowing 76 points. They've also given up 80+ this year to bad/mediocre Syracuse, Wake and NC State teams. They are ranked 319th in opponent FG% at 53.5. The only thing they do well on D is steal the ball where they rank 10th nationally. Even if we are not shooting the ball great, our guards should be able to attack the basket and they don't have the size to keep Walker off the offensive glass. This would be a great game to revive our pick and roll game with Walker as well. Jabari should score nearly at will if he's feeling it as they don't have a guy remotely big or athletic enough to cover him.
Overall, I really like this matchup. Miami relies heavily on their guards attacking the basket to score which plays right into our defensive wheelhouse as the best shot blocking team in the country. This game sets up as a dream matchup for Walker. Triple doubles are obviously rare, but I will not be surprised at all if he has one here. They shoot a solid percentage from 3, but don't take enough normally to beat us shooting over our D. Biggest key for us will be our guards taking care of the ball just as they did today. I don't think Miami can beat us unless we turn it over a ton and give them easy buckets in transition.
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