Top 25 Breakdown: No. 8 Auburn
SEASON PREVIEW Aaron Fitt - January 14, 2020
2019 Record: 38-28. RPI: 19.
Coach (Record at school): Butch Thompson (141-104 in 4 seasons)
Ballpark: Plainsman Park (4,100)
Postseason History: 22 regionals (active streak: 3), 5 CWS trips (active streak: 1).
More:
Fall Report on Auburn
Schedule, Stats, Team News: Follow the Tigers all season long at our
Auburn Team Page.
Auburn's Projected Lineup
Pos. Name, Yr. AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI SB
C Matt Scheffler, Sr. .260/.331/.342 2 28 5
1B Rankin Woley, Sr. .277/.336/.387 3 45 2
2B Garrett Farquhar, Jr. Tr. — Shelton State (Ala.) JC
3B Brody Moore, So. .333/.379/.444 0 4 0
SS Ryan Bliss, So. .281/.367/.369 3 37 11
LF Judd Ward, Jr. .272/.377/.393 5 34 5
CF Kason Howell, So. .262/.340/.307 0 28 14
RF Steven Williams, Jr. .247/.355/.413 9 36 3
DH Conor Davis, Sr. .290/.351/.448 8 36 2
Pos. Name, Yr. W-L ERA IP SO BB SV
SP #1 Tanner Burns, Jr. 4-4 2.82 79.2 101 23 0
SP #2 Jack Owen, Jr. 4-2 2.75 68.2 59 14 0
SP #3 Bailey Horn, Jr. 4-2 5.97 37.2 31 20 0
Closer Cody Greenhill, Jr. 2-3 3.45 57.1 44 18 12
Grading The Tigers
Just as scouts grade prospects using the 20-80 scouting scale, we use a 20-80 scale to evaluate teams in our top 25. A score of 50 in each category is average, relative to a typical NCAA tournament team; 55 is slightly above-average; 60 is above-average (plus); 70 is well above-average (plus-plus); 80 is top of the scale, historically strong. Accordingly, 45 is fringe-average or slightly below-average; 40 is below-average; 30 is well below-average; and 20 is the extreme in that direction.
Hitting: 55
Auburn’s offense under-performed for much of last season, finishing ninth in the SEC in batting and 10th in scoring. But seven everyday regulars are back in the fold, and there’s reason to believe many of them will take steps forward with another year of experience under their belts. It might not be a flashy offense, but Auburn figures to get plenty of competitive at-bats up and down the lineup. The Tigers have a trio of gritty, athletic fire-starters with good bat-handling skills in Ward, Bliss and Howell, who could all compete for time in the top two spots in the batting order, but Auburn hopes all three can reduce their strikeout rates in 2020. Ward, a compact lefthanded hitter with a nice line-drive, gap-to-gap approach, is a warrior in the batter’s box and could be the favorite for the leadoff spot. Bliss and Howell are contact-oriented hitters from the right side, but Howell in particular stood out this fall for his strength gains, making him an obvious breakout candidate.
Hitting coach Gabe Gross identified Woley as one of Auburn’s most improved hitters this fall, so look for a jump from last year’s decent production. Williams and Davis figure to be the centerpieces of the offense; Williams also put on good weight in the offseason and showed a much-improved ability to drive the ball middle-away. Scheffler’s calling card is his defense, but he also made noticeable strength gains after spending the summer working out with Williams and Howell. Juco transfer Farquhar turned in one quality at-bat after another in the fall, and his line-drive stroke should play well in his first season at the Division I level. And Moore looks poised to take a step forward as a sophomore after showing glimpses of offensive potential as a freshman.
Power: 45
Auburn ranked next-to-last in the SEC in home runs and slugging a year ago, and it lost its top two home run hitters in Edouard Julien and Will Holland. But Williams has light-tower power from the left side and could realistically double his eight-homer output from a year ago now that he’s added strength and made strides with his offensive approach. The physically mature Davis offers double-digit homer ability from the right side and has a knack for delivering the timely hit. It’s reasonable to expect Woley and Ward to hit for a little more power this year as well, though neither profiles as a true slugger. Freshman two-way talent Nate LaRue, the likely backup catcher, brings exciting bat speed and power potential from the right side, but it’s unclear how many at-bats he’ll log as a freshman, particularly since he could wind up as a key bullpen arm. Expect this to be more of a doubles team than a long ball squad.
Speed: 50
The Tigers were an efficient basestealing team a year ago, swiping 63 bags in 76 attempts (an 83 percent success rate). Howell (14-for-16) and Bliss (11-for-13) are the top two threats on the basepaths — both are above-average runners who pick their spots well. Ward is a solid-average to slightly above-average runner, while Moore and Farquhar move around fine, though neither is a burner. Scheffler also runs well for a catcher, showing fringe-average run times from home to first. But the speed game doesn’t figure to be a big part of Auburn’s attack, overall.
Defense: 55
The Tigers were an average defensive team last spring, ranking 78th in the nation with a .973 fielding percentage, but their returning experience should translate to more defensive consistency in 2020. Scheffler is the general, a mature defensive catcher who blocks and receives well and owns off a strong, accurate arm and quick release, though LaRue offers even more arm strength. Howell and Ward are outstanding in the outfield, and Williams owns a cannon in right field. Farquhar is a fundamentally sound, reliable second baseman, and Moore is a fluid athlete who looks the part at the hot corner, though he could also slide to shortstop if needed. The biggest question is whether Auburn will move Bliss from second (where he was very good last year) to short; his arm is a little light for the position, but he can make up for it by aggressively charging the ball and getting rid of it quickly and accurately.