******Official Boogs at LSU Game Thread******

[MomentInTheSun]

I’m sure this will fall to the bottom depths of the Greg here soon, but time to get it started anyways.

Just saw where The Boogs opened only as a 4 point favorite to the Ed Orgeron led LSU tigers. I’m honestly a little surprised at that. Thought it’d be at least a touchdown, but I guess Vegas doesn’t trust this Boog offense on the road.

I think the Boogs cover. Danny Etling is straight trash and the top 2 RBs for LSU aren’t 100% either. That O is going nowhere on the ferocious Boog D.

Look for Sweet Jarrett to continue his hot streak. And hopefully more of those little Eli Stove read options to keep their DEs honest.

Boogs 28 - 7

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Now I’m seeing 7 pt favorite. About right

 

[ThrustMaxwell]

2:30 CBS game. LSU's defense may give the boogs a little trouble but their offense poses no thread to the Auburn Defense.

 

[Denim Vest]

Hopefully Carlson has regained form cause I see a lot of FG attempts in this one. Something like 19-13 Boogs.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

2:30 CBS game. LSU's defense may give the boogs a little trouble but their offense poses no thread to the Auburn Defense.

Yeah their D will need to force at least 3 turnovers to give them a chance imo. Etling is just too trash to give this healthy Boog D any problems. He’s gonna get abused

 

[Slippin Jimmy]

I've got us losing this one, fellas. Won't believe we can win in Red Stick until it happens.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Hopefully Carlson has regained form cause I see a lot of FG attempts in this one. Something like 19-13 Boogs.

I think they’ll be lucky to get 13 unless they get a special teams TD or some crazy turnover. Their QB looks like the gimpy version of Sean White.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Trusted friend of the site, Janes Crepea, just said that the line has jumped all the way to 8.5. Not many people buying that LSU is back after their ugly ass win in Gainesville

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Crazy

 

[Fatz Geronimo]

that’s a huge line move... not the same scenario, but reminiscent of the head scratching Arky line last year... like 80%+ of the bets were coming in on Arky and the line kept moving in AU’s favor... the big money guys loved us that week... a 5 point move in 30 minutes means the right people hammered AU as soon as it opened

that’s the single most reassuring thing that’s happened to boog football this entire season

 

[jeramye]

View embedded media

Crazy

Florida is trash. They should be 1-4 and worried about just making a bowl game. Hell Im not sure at 3-2 they are a Bowl lock. They may lose to A&M/UGA/USCe/FSU and they had a game canceled so they'd be 5-6.

LSU looks trashy but slightly dangerous. There is talent there and the coordinators should be good but they still look a total mess

 

[Fillup Marschell]

I am at a solid meh. It is LSU week. By all rights we should roll against another bad SEC opponent. I just have a hard time caring with November looming.

I see things that could go wrong with a subpar OL but just think the D puts the game out of reach for their crap Offense.

Zan has sucked the joy out of CFB for me

 

[Fatz Geronimo]

Zan has sucked the joy out of CFB for me

we haven’t won there in 18 effing years... I should be stoked at the chance - however slight - that we’re about to go down there and shank them in the prison yard

alas, I have no faith in anything other than “Gus gonna Gus”

it’s a terrible way to experience a fun, leisurely, pastime

 

[jeramye]

we haven’t won there in 18 effing years... I should be stoked at the chance - however slight - that we’re about to go down there and shank them in the prison yard

alas, I have no faith in anything other than “Gus gonna Gus”

it’s a terrible way to experience a fun, leisurely, pastime

I'll be damned if my dislike of Gus keeps me from enjoying a win in Red Stick.

I'm just too worried he will botch this. Right now all I want is to enter the UGA game with 1 loss so we are nationally relevant. Then let's see what happens. If he loses to LSU though I'm gonna start wanting to see us fall to A&M and the others so we can start over.

 

[ShenaniganZ]

we haven’t won there in 18 effing years... I should be stoked at the chance - however slight - that we’re about to go down there and shank them in the prison yard

alas, I have no faith in anything other than “Gus gonna Gus”

it’s a terrible way to experience a fun, leisurely, pastime

This is me.

 

[midnighttulips]

I am at a solid meh. It is LSU week. By all rights we should roll against another bad SEC opponent. I just have a hard time caring with November looming.

I see things that could go wrong with a subpar OL but just think the D puts the game out of reach for their crap Offense.

Zan has sucked the joy out of CFB for me

Me too. I used to cheer so loudly in front of my TV that my cats would be freaked out of their little minds. Now they hang out with me with no fear of any outbursts of excitement to scare them into seeking cover.
I hate Gue.

 

[WDE_Tarp]

I'll be damned if my dislike of Gus keeps me from enjoying a win in Red Stick.

I'm just too worried he will botch this. Right now all I want is to enter the UGA game with 1 loss so we are nationally relevant. Then let's see what happens. If he loses to LSU though I'm gonna start wanting to see us fall to A&M and the others so we can start over.

This.

 

[BigtimeAub]

Pussies all up ITT. Boogs going motorboatin’ on the bayou!

 

[CowardlyToaster]

Calling for a big AUBURN vict'ry because @secfans or whatever said it was a lock.

 

[MarcAntony]

I'm still mulling this one over. On paper, we should smash this LSU squad, but add in the Zan factor and Baton Rouge Juju cast on us by the Bayou Sauvage Witches coven after the Cigar Game and the crystal ball becomes hazy.

I'll be damned if my dislike of Gus keeps me from enjoying a win in Red Stick.

I'm just too worried he will botch this. Right now all I want is to enter the UGA game with 1 loss so we are nationally relevant. Then let's see what happens. If he loses to LSU though I'm gonna start wanting to see us fall to A&M and the others so we can start over.

/raises hand

I'm in this camp. The first road game I ever went to as a lil boog was the 1988 'Earthquake Game'. IDGAF about Gus, Jhey Jhey, Corch Rice or anything except seeing us walk out of Baton Rouge with the W.

Calling for a big AUBURN vict'ry because @secfans or whatever said it was a lock.

I think Jay deleted that thread - not seeing it. On first impression, I was impressed by the young man's gumption, but reserving judgment till I review his work first-hand.

 

[secfans]

I think Jay deleted that thread - not seeing it. On first impression, I was impressed by the young man's gumption, but reserving judgment till I review his work first-hand.

We posted all our models on our website underneath the youtube videos, so you can review them for historical (8-0 this year) context.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

We posted all our models on our website underneath the youtube videos, so you can review them for historical (8-0 this year) context.

where's the website/youtube videos?

 

[secfans]

secfans.com

Though I mistakenly used the AU/LSU header image for the TAMU/UF game.

 

[ThrustMaxwell]

We posted all our models on our website underneath the youtube videos, so you can review them for historical (8-0 this year) context.

Is that ATS or straight up? Can you give us some background on yourself and the site?

 

[WDE_Tarp]

Is that ATS or straight up? Can you give us some background on yourself and the site?

They aren't a model for betting according to the thread on tbb, just a model they came up with because of inaccuracies with current models.

 

[secfans]

I'm not sure about ATS, so straight up. Every blowout it predicted ended up being a blowout, and it had Bama beating TAMU by 7. (We only started our models in week 4 or 5)

Additionally, we've picked 16 games this year. And between the two of us (32 picks), we've missed 3 straight up: both picked LSU vs Miss St and one of us picked Miss St vs UGA. Both got LSU vs Florida right and both switched our AU/Clemson pick from AU to Clem after we saw AU's oline struggles in the opener.

But our picks get better as our model gets better which requires more data than we have the first few weeks of the season.

 

[ThrustMaxwell]

I'm not sure about ATS, so straight up. Every blowout it predicted ended up being a blowout, and it had Bama beating TAMU by 7. (We only started our models in week 4 or 5)

Additionally, we've picked 16 games this year. And between the two of us (32 picks), we've missed 3 straight up: both picked LSU vs Miss St and one of us picked Miss St vs UGA. Both got LSU vs Florida right and both switched our AU/Clemson pick from AU to Clem after we saw AU's oline struggles in the opener.

But our picks get better as our model gets better which requires more data than we have the first few weeks of the season.

Thanks, interesting stuff.

 

[CowardlyToaster]

I'm not sure about ATS, so straight up. Every blowout it predicted ended up being a blowout, and it had Bama beating TAMU by 7. (We only started our models in week 4 or 5)

Additionally, we've picked 16 games this year. And between the two of us (32 picks), we've missed 3 straight up: both picked LSU vs Miss St and one of us picked Miss St vs UGA. Both got LSU vs Florida right and both switched our AU/Clemson pick from AU to Clem after we saw AU's oline struggles in the opener.

But our picks get better as our model gets better which requires more data than we have the first few weeks of the season.

I see potential in you. Stick around here at the GREG and we'll treat you right. You can bunk with me and @Slippin Jimmy. It's close quarters but you'll never get cold or feel lonely.

 

[Slippin Jimmy]

I see potential in you. Stick around here at the GREG and we'll treat you right. You can bunk with me and @Slippin Jimmy. It's close quarters but you'll never get cold or feel lonely.

 

[Harvey Specter]

I see potential in you. Stick around here at the GREG and we'll treat you right. You can bunk with me and @Slippin Jimmy. It's close quarters but you'll never get cold or feel lonely.

In

 

[Fillup Marschell]

Feelin left out toast. Feelin left the hell out.

 

[ShenaniganZ]

I see potential in you. Stick around here at the GREG and we'll treat you right. You can bunk with me and @Slippin Jimmy. It's close quarters but you'll never get cold or feel lonely.

 

[MarcAntony]

23-16 AU


Stream of consciousness cold takes.

LSU is (marginally) better than perceived, and AU is not as good as perceived. This is especially true given the latest reshuffling of the OL, which came right as the OL had finally gelled and begun performing at a high level. This happens just as LSU gets two of their better interior DL back this week (notably Rashard Lawrence) .

If I'm Chip Lindsey, I don't wait until the 2nd half to make adjustments if LSU's front is having success defending the run. That could be a recipe for disaster. Rather, I trust my QB and WRs to make plays and pass to setup the run. Trust Stidham won't go all doe eyed again and the WRs will get separation. Or better yet, how about we actually begin calling a few of those RPOs we spent all offseason installing.


AU defense vs LSU offense should be lopsided as hell, particularly so if Javaris and Jamel are both back out there and close to 100 percent.


AU defense has two weaknesses that I've been able to spot:

1) No backup 3-tech to rotate in.

Tyrone Truesdell can't hold multiple gaps, and gets mauled by double teams. It's ridiculous he's our 2nd team DT by default. Andrew Williams has played well as the off DT, but when asked to play the 3-tech gets pushed around. Not his fault, he has no business being asked to do that, but that's a topic for another day.

2) Nickel.

Jeremiah Dinson is ferocious against the run, but is abysmal in coverage. Daniel Thomas had to come in relief last week when it became apparent Ole Miss knew Dinson couldn't cover anyone and had designed their entire gameplan around isolating and abusing him in coverage. We had to shift to more zone coverage with mixed results after that.

Unlike #1, there is a clear and obvious answer to this one - it just requires having both Javaris and Jamel healthy at the same time. Move Javaris inside to Nickel, shoring it up, and Jamel takes over at field corner on a more permanent basis. Throwing lanes will be few and far between if and when we can get there.


There's simply no way to account for two of the game's most important variables: 1) Gus and 2) AU's Bayou Juju curse. Just have to hope beyond hope Gus' headset malfunctions and my virgin sacrifices to Josephine were enough to counter the curse.

If you've read this far something is wrong with you. TIA

 

[CowardlyToaster]

Bump for GAME DAY. I'm calling for a big BOOG vict'ry.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Feeling really confident about the Boog W today gang. Young Jarrett just keeps getting better and better

 

[Denim Vest]

I may change my prediction to 23-13 for the cover. So much confidence swirling maybe even Gus’s dumbass can get us in the EZ a couple times.

 

[Slippin Jimmy]

We're gonna lose, guys. It'll be much easier if you go ahead and prepare yourselves.

 

[WDE_Tarp]

Feeling really confident about the Boog W today gang. Young Jarrett just keeps getting better and better

He is but I worry about how he will respond to being sacked multiple times. Will he revert to Clemson and have his eyes on rushers instead of downfield? I hope not.

 

[ShenaniganZ]

We're gonna lose, guys. It'll be much easier if you go ahead and pepper yore angus.

FIFY

 

[ThrustMaxwell]

What times the game? Got to see if I already have plans or not.