OT: Boog Basketball Draft odds

[MomentInTheSun]

Just been doing some elementary research about the 2018 nba draft and I don't see too many experts predicting Austin or Mustapha in the lottery.

I know this site is the best place for boog bball talk on the net, so what do you goons think the odds are that one of those guys stays another year? I think both have it in them to be dominant college players, but neither do scream NBA talent AS OF NOW.

Thoughts? Selfishly would love to have them stick around a bit, but also think it's good for the program to have them drafted too.

 

[Harvey Specter]

I'm still skeptical on Wiley's transition to the pros and being valuable to a team. Just doesn't seem to have the skill set to be a top pick. But big guys can have a limited shelf life so I would probably go if I were him

 

[Denim Vest]

Excellent thread. I'd say slightly less than 50% chance one returns. The thing is if they aren't gonna ever be lottery caliber then it doesn't make much difference if they get picked late first or 2nd.

Apparently it's almost better to go in the 2nd because it's less years and you can sign a big vet deal sooner assuming you're good enough to stay in the lig.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

I'm still skeptical on Wiley's transition to the pros and being valuable to a team. Just doesn't seem to have the skill set to be a top pick. But big guys can have a limited shelf life so I would probably go if I were him

Yeah. He doesn't fit the mold of an ideal 5 in the nba anymore. He's gonna have to be WAY better in the intermediate/perimeter game if he's gonna be a high pick.

I think Mustapha will be in the league, but I also don't think he has the elite athleticism to be a top pick. But he could eventually develop into a james harden esque player if he develops a ton. We'll see how much better he's gotten. I don't know. Curious what other people think

 

[Harvey Specter]

Yeah. He doesn't fit the mold of an ideal 5 in the nba anymore. He's gonna have to be WAY better in the intermediate/perimeter game if he's gonna be a high pick.

I think Mustapha will be in the league, but I also don't think he has the elite athleticism to be a top pick. But he could eventually develop into a james harden esque player if he develops a ton. We'll see how much better he's gotten. I don't know. Curious what other people think

A Manu Ginobli type is how I see Heron. Don't think he'll be a superstar or anything but has what's needed to stick around

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Excellent thread. I'd say slightly less than 50% chance one returns. The thing is if they aren't gonna ever be lottery caliber then it doesn't make much difference if they get picked late first or 2nd.

Apparently it's almost better to go in the 2nd because it's less years and you can sign a big vet deal sooner assuming you're good enough to stay in the lig.

Mustapha is a tricky one for me. He's not a crazy elite athlete like a Daron Fox or something. And he doesn't have elite size either. I mean, he could be a james harden (even though I think James is quicker) but he's a Sindarius Thornwell to me. But he could think he's ready. I don't know. I'm just throwing my opinion out there.

 

[Denim Vest]

Staph seems like he wants to get out after next year but I could see him being a Buddy Hield type stud as a Jr. A guy that can be such a polished stud in the college game he's a top 10 pick even if he lacks the talent of the one and done guys.

 

[Boisgreat]

I'm still skeptical on Wiley's transition to the pros and being valuable to a team. Just doesn't seem to have the skill set to be a top pick. But big guys can have a limited shelf life so I would probably go if I were him

If he is a 1st rounder or top of 2 he needs to go! "shelf life" is key here.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Staph seems like he wants to get out after next year but I could see him being a Buddy Hield type stud as a Jr. A guy that can be such a polished stud in the college game he's a top 10 pick even if he lacks the talent of the one and done guys.

yeah. I just don't know what the best decision for these guys is. If Mustpha had Dunnans' athleticism, then he'd already be gone. Shame that TJ couldn't shoot the ball and was such a dipshit.

 

[Denim Vest]

Mustapha is a tricky one for me. He's not a crazy elite athlete like a Daron Fox or something. And he doesn't have elite size either. I mean, he could be a james harden (even though I think James is quicker) but he's a Sindarius Thornwell to me. But he could think he's ready. I don't know. I'm just throwing my opinion out there.

Harden is just ridiculous. I think Staph's got more of an NBA skill set than Thornwell.

I expect them to both go if they can play to their potential this year and definitely be drafted. Hell Staph might just ball and sneak into top half of the first. Austin seems too limited to me to really move up that high.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

Harden is just ridiculous. I think Staph's got more of an NBA skill set than Thornwell.

I expect them to both go if they can play to their potential this year and definitely be drafted. Hell Staph might just ball and sneak into top half of the first. Austin seems too limited to me to really move up that high.

yeah. He's probably more athletic than Thornwell. But Harden wasn't some insane athlete at ASU and he's developed into a way more refined player. I agree with you on Wiley though. Just don't see him being an elite 5 in the league. He'll never have the shooting/ball control for that and he's not a SHAQ.

Stapha could develop into anything though. Who knows, maybe he becomes a PG too this year? We'll see I guess.

 

[Denim Vest]

yeah. He's probably more athletic than Thornwell. But Harden wasn't some insane athlete at ASU and he's developed into a way more refined player. I agree with you on Wiley though. Just don't see him being an elite 5 in the league. He'll never have the shooting/ball control for that and he's not a SHAQ.

Stapha could develop into anything though. Who knows, maybe he becomes a PG too this year? We'll see I guess.

Yeah I don't remember Harden in college but he was the 3rd pick in the draft after his So year.

Austin doesn't have an outside game and he's not some insane athlete like a D Howard or something.

I saw one mock that had both as late first rounders. Looking at some others don't see Staph much and this one projects him as a 2nd rounder in '19

http://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft

Same site has Austin late first after this season.

 

[Ser Sweater Vest]

I don't think Mustapha is one of the best 60 players in the world.

 

[MomentInTheSun]

I don't think Mustapha is one of the best 60 players in the world.

You mean one of the best non NBA players in the world?

 

[Slippin Jimmy]

I'm gonna need to see Austin develop a legit mid-range game before I'll believe he can be a long timer in the league..

 

[Ser Sweater Vest]

You mean one of the best non NBA players in the world?

This^

 

[MomentInTheSun]

This^

I don't understand what you're asking or what your point is. Feel free to articulate it

 

[WDE_Tarp]

Wiley is the best draft prospect, but we don't have anyone who is currently a lottery pick. That being said, Wiley should have been going to prom last year not playing SEC basketball so he could end up being a lottery pick.

Mustapha will leave early, but I agree with the analysis that he should stay one more year and continue to develop his game.

 

[Ser Sweater Vest]

I don't understand what you're asking or what your point is. Feel free to articulate it

There are 60 players drafted from all over the globe. I do not see Mustapha as being one of those 60.

 

[Cory4AU*]

I can't shake the feeling that after another year of tutelage under BRUCE, MUSTAPHA is the next Jordan and AUstin is the next Shaq.

 

[jeramye]

Both need to make a big jump this season to be sure they'd get drafted.

Wiley needs to go ASAP. He's a big who has had lower leg/foot issues. Clock is ticking loudly. He won't be a great NBA big man, but play great defense, rebound and learn to be effective in PnR and he can make $$$ for as long as his body allows. There are a lot of poor mans Tyson Chandler or Tristan Thompson types running around the league cashing checks.

 

[Fatz Geronimo]

neither will ever be lottery picks and both need to go after this year...

Austin's limitations and injury problems have been covered... but he has legit polish and touch and can score against NBA backups right now... he's never going to be a star - but he's good enough to make a roster - get some developmental time - and play 10-12 minutes as a backup 5 - and considering his ceiling, that's worth it for most teams to invest the time and energy to see what they can get...

Mustapha is never going to become quicker or more athletic - but I expect his shooting to take a huge step forward this year... he's a willing passer but not a great one - same with his ball handling - but he's crafty enough to get his shot off quickly and that will be his best bet at NBA success... if he shoots it as well as I expect this year he'll have nothing else to prove in college... hes also a willing defender - just limited physically - but smart enough to play early in the right team defensive system

more importantly - we NEED both to leave and get drafted this year... we haven't had anyone drafted in ages... BRUCE has to be able to sell draft results instead of potential - and he knows that... it doesn't matter where they get drafted - we just need them both to have their names called ASAP... then do the same thing with Okeke, Mitchell, and Montgomery... then again with - zod willing - Christian Brown and Ashton Hagans - or whoever we sign after that... Heron and Wiley are the key to getting that train rolling full speed - just the next step in BRUCE's master plan

 

[Denim Vest]

neither will ever be lottery picks and both need to go after this year...

Austin's limitations and injury problems have been covered... but he has legit polish and touch and can score against NBA backups right now... he's never going to be a star - but he's good enough to make a roster - get some developmental time - and play 10-12 minutes as a backup 5 - and considering his ceiling, that's worth it for most teams to invest the time and energy to see what they can get...

Mustapha is never going to become quicker or more athletic - but I expect his shooting to take a huge step forward this year... he's a willing passer but not a great one - same with his ball handling - but he's crafty enough to get his shot off quickly and that will be his best bet at NBA success... if he shoots it as well as I expect this year he'll have nothing else to prove in college... hes also a willing defender - just limited physically - but smart enough to play early in the right team defensive system

more importantly - we NEED both to leave and get drafted this year... we haven't had anyone drafted in ages... BRUCE has to be able to sell draft results instead of potential - and he knows that... it doesn't matter where they get drafted - we just need them both to have their names called ASAP... then do the same thing with Okeke, Mitchell, and Montgomery... then again with - zod willing - Christian Brown and Ashton Hagans - or whoever we sign after that... Heron and Wiley are the key to getting that train rolling full speed - just the next step in BRUCE's master plan

Spot on stuff. And BRUCE isn't going to try to convince them to come back if they are ready to move on. I could still see one of them not liking where they are projected and coming back but ideally they ball, we have a great season, and they are off to the lig.

 

[Fatz Geronimo]

also - for all the Harden comparisons - he has 1 elite skill that makes him the player he is... it's not vision - or lateral agility - or anything noticeably athletic at all...

he's the best player ever measured at slowing down...

that sounds dumb - but it was explained on a podcast a year or so ago - I just don't remember which one... with the SportVU data NBA teams have access to now they can track every players motion and movement on every inch of the court at all times... you can measure someone's initial burst - or close out speed - or how they switch and recover off a pick and roll... but in all those measurements - the largest gap between first and second in any possible metric - is James Hardens ability to decrease his speed... it's how he's so effective with the ball either clearing space on a pull up - or euro step - or creating an angle to make a cross court pass... he slows down and maintains his balance better than anyone in the NBA...

I can't remember all the comparisons they made across different sports and other NBA skills, but those nerds were adamant that Harden is average or below average in most purely physical measurements - but was so off the charts better than anyone else SportVU had ever recorded at slowing down that it unlocked every other aspect of his game... blew my feeble mind

 

[MomentInTheSun]

neither will ever be lottery picks and both need to go after this year...

Austin's limitations and injury problems have been covered... but he has legit polish and touch and can score against NBA backups right now... he's never going to be a star - but he's good enough to make a roster - get some developmental time - and play 10-12 minutes as a backup 5 - and considering his ceiling, that's worth it for most teams to invest the time and energy to see what they can get...

Mustapha is never going to become quicker or more athletic - but I expect his shooting to take a huge step forward this year... he's a willing passer but not a great one - same with his ball handling - but he's crafty enough to get his shot off quickly and that will be his best bet at NBA success... if he shoots it as well as I expect this year he'll have nothing else to prove in college... hes also a willing defender - just limited physically - but smart enough to play early in the right team defensive system

more importantly - we NEED both to leave and get drafted this year... we haven't had anyone drafted in ages... BRUCE has to be able to sell draft results instead of potential - and he knows that... it doesn't matter where they get drafted - we just need them both to have their names called ASAP... then do the same thing with Okeke, Mitchell, and Montgomery... then again with - zod willing - Christian Brown and Ashton Hagans - or whoever we sign after that... Heron and Wiley are the key to getting that train rolling full speed - just the next step in BRUCE's master plan

Absolutely. Just having a pro day to showcase these kids to executives and scouts is a big deal for recruiting imo. If both Austin and Mustapha both get drafted, that'd be such a great thing for the program to legitimize it as a place where young studs can come to prepare for the next level.

Does anyone think Bryce could have an NBA future?

 

[Denim Vest]

Absolutely. Just having a pro day to showcase these kids to executives and scouts is a big deal for recruiting imo. If both Austin and Mustapha both get drafted, that'd be such a great thing for the program to legitimize it as a place where young studs can come to prepare for the next level.

Does anyone think Bryce could have an NBA future?

I wouldn't expect it but I wouldn't say it's totally out of the question. Got a great J and athleticism to defend. I'd expect someone from the group of Bryce, Jared, Malik, Horace, Mac to get a shot in the lig.

 

[brazilnut]

I'm gonna need to see Austin develop a legit mid-range game before I'll believe he can be a long timer in the league..

I'd have to agree with most of what everyone has said ITT. I expect both to be gone after this year, bc I expect BRUCE to get this team to play up to their potential. Austin will be drafted... but for him to really move up a draft board or have any lasting impact in the league he needs to have worked on his face-up game and being able to knock down the mid-range pick and pop type jumper.

He has a lot of back to the basket skill... but those players are going the way of the dinosaur. See Jahlil Okafor's trajectory.

Mustapha has immense potential imo... not an elite athlete by any means, but yet he has no real weaknesses or limitations. He always seems in control. And dude gets buckets.