With 11 games remaining (9 SEC games and two midweeks), here's a look at the postseason outlook. We have 8 straight home games before a 3-game series to end the season at LSU.
This is what the Needs Report says about our RPI chances the rest of the season and what we need to stay in certain thresholds. This is stagnant and based on today's numbers, and since RPI is ever changing, this is just an estimate.
Top 32:
0 home wins, 3 road wins
1 home wins, 2 road wins
2 home wins, 1 road wins
3 home wins, 0 road wins
Top 16:
5 home wins, 3 road wins
6 home wins, 1 road wins
7 home wins, 0 road wins
Top 8:
7 home wins, 3 road wins
8 home wins, 2 road wins
Essentially, keeping a top 32 RPI seems like a lock, but it won't get us into the Field of 64 with the bare minimum. To get in, I think we need 4 more SEC wins, which means we'd finish at least 14-16 in SEC play. If we finish in the top 16 in RPI, there's a chance we host in that scenario. But 6 home wins could come with a sweep of Bama, two midweek wins, and going 1-2 against UGA. It would also mean we probably went 1-2 against LSU, and 15-15 isn't hosting. I think somewhat realistic scenario is to win all three remaining SEC series 2-1, which would put us at 16-14 with three consecutive series wins and series wins against 2 top 20 RPI teams. Even better would be a sweep of Bama and the two series wins to finish 17-13. I think that would almost guarantee us a host spot. It would then come down to how some other teams like Ole Miss and aTm finished the season.
Realistically, I think 14-16/15-15 is where we finish, which gets us a 2 seed pretty easily (probably Ga Tech or East Carolina). I think we win 2 of 3 from Bama, 1 or 2 against UGA (not sure how I feel about this series yet), and 1 against LSU. A lot hinges on this Bama series. If you can sweep it, it's a huge momentum boost for the last few games. If you lose this series, then boy do things start looking worrisome.