I cannot believe we're in the fuggin final four.
++++++Boogs vs. UVA Official Final Four Game Thread++++++
- Thread starter MomentInTheSun
- Start date
Yeah, shit is nuts
they are definitely great defensively... well coached, very disciplined... but I’m curious to see how they play against a true 5 out offense
Mac will get open looks... can he knock them down? because they can’t hedge a ball screen or show and recover, because our 5 will shoot the motherfvcker if you hesitate at all
and if you try to switch it... we’re going to keep you spread more thin than you’ve been spread all year, and Jared and JVon are going past your bigs and there’s nothing you can do about it
they don’t foul - so either Jared and JVon have to create enough space off of switches to finish in the lane - or, the more likely scenario, they’ve got multiple guys close enough to the paint to help that we’re going to see a steady diet of - ball screen, Mac pops, they switch, Jared backs it out, drives past their big, they collapse, and Samir/Malik/Danjel get a look from the wing or corner... and if they rotate, Bryce is above the break for the next pass
we have all of the pieces to carve their chalky asses up... it’s gonna be on Mac, Danjel, Samir, and Malik to knock down the open looks we create for them, and at this point, I expect them to knock them down
was yesterday the most active Mac has been on offense all year? Seems like he did several different things, aside from his usual threes
Looking at this one objectively, I think Virginia will be too much. Boogs had a fantastic year. But I think Virginia ends it. Hope I'm wrong, though.
WHY DON'T YOU GO BACK TO YOUR HOME ON WHORE ISLAND.
they’ve been KenPom’s #1 team virtually all season, and his #1 team wins a disproportionate amount of titles, so I’m trying to stay objective
but they play such a short rotation - and have struggled recently against teams they would’ve crushed in December and January... there’s no way to account for this, but I have to believe they’re wearing down
had we played in January they’d have embarrassed us... had this version of us played the January version of them, we probably wouldn’t have enough without Chuma... but the current version of the HYG’s vs the current UVA squad? I’m taking the HYG’s all day
this is a game that they can’t win... we can only lose... if both teams play even, we’re better... if we play an A- game, they can’t beat us... if we play a B/B+ game we’ve got a shot depending on how tight their b’holes are... if we play a solid A game, the only question is how ugly it gets for them
The strange part of this one is that their size doesn't bother me. They aren't going to eat us alive in the post. They don't draw a ton of fouls. But those guards are just gamers. They won't blow you out with combine stats or flashy play, but they just make plays. Our guards have that character too. One of my favorite things about them. I think our guys ceilings are higher for this game but those 2 chalkies actually worry me.
Somethings gotta give between that pack line defense and the way the Boogs spread the floor. Kind of comes down to how quickly we move the ball around and how far they’re willing to guard past the three point line. I mean, I’d love to jump on their dicks early and force them into a faster game. We’re just playing with too much confidence right now. Jared and Bryce got this
I think the last time I really watched UVA their lame ass D was getting carved up by the ultra quick guards of UMBC.
That was obviously a historic meltdown but I just don’t see how they are that good? I think the Kenpom algorithm breaks when evaluating UVAs style. It’s like they just muck up the game and teams can’t make shots more cause they get frustrated with the pace and being forced to pass it around the perimeter not cause the D is that stifling.
That was obviously a historic meltdown but I just don’t see how they are that good? I think the Kenpom algorithm breaks when evaluating UVAs style. It’s like they just muck up the game and teams can’t make shots more cause they get frustrated with the pace and being forced to pass it around the perimeter not cause the D is that stifling.
Maybe I’m crazy wrong on this, but I feel like they’re a similar team to what we just saw from Kentucky on sunday. Better 3-point shooting team, maybe a little less athletic and deep across the board, more veteran guard play than UK. But the style of play seems pretty similar. Kentucky got into a grind-it-our pace that only pushed the tempo when advantageous to them. Lengthy and physical defensively. Tough to shoot on from the perimeter. They’re both efficient on offense, which makes playing in transition tough. They both rebound very well.
I feel like it’s a solid comparison and, if correct, one that should give us some confidence going into this type of game that we can win a grind-it-our affair against a great defense.
Wish I had a home on Whore Island...sounds amazing!
I sure hope I'm wrong. Conventional wisdom would say Virginia will choke under Tony Bennett. Just have a feeling they won't, this time.
So do you think UVA would have beaten UNC and UK the way we did? Just curious. I really think we matchup better with UVA than either of those teams.
What has impressed you with Virgina so far in the tournament? Honest question. I’ve watched all their games and mayb I’m a dumbass, but we are a bad matchup for them. Purdue is a lot less athletic than our bunch and over the last 2 games they’ve given up a lot of uncontested 3’s. Everyone is talking about UVA’s defense, but not Auburn’s which is surprising as hell to me.
New Mexico - 16 turnovers, 49% fg,
28% 3pt.
Kansas - 16 turnovers, 45% fg, 31% 3pt.
UNC - 14 turnovers, 43% fg, 25% 3pt.
Kentucky - 14 turnovers, 44% fg, 23% 3 pt.
In comparison to Virginia:
Gardner Web - 16 turnovers, 44% fg, 39.1 3pt.
Oklahoma - 7 turnovers, 36.5 fg, 36.4 3pt.
Oregon - 11 turnovers, 37% fg, 36% 3 pt.
Purdue - 9 turnovers, 49% fg, 43% 3pt.
Overall averages:
Auburn turnovers - 15
Virginia turnovers - 10.75
Auburn defensive FG % - 45%
Virginia defensive FG % - 41.6%
Auburn defensive 3pt % - 26.7%
Virginia defensive 3pt % - 38.6%
I would like to add Auburn has played the number 12, 4, 1 and 2 seeds. Virginia has played the number 16, 9, 12 and 3 seeds.
Again, I’ve watched every game UVA has played in the tournament and maybe 5 regular season games. To me Auburn is a horrible match for them. JMO.
This times 100!!! I have no clue what people are watching, but UVA has played like shit over the last month.
I get their Kenpom rating because they basically crushed every ACC team not named Duke, split with FSU and beat UNC in the one matchup they had. They feasted on teams like Va Tech, Louisville, Clemson, Syracuse, NC State. That boosts the hell out of your computer ranking.
I watched a few of their games and I still can't wrap my head around this stat based on what I saw. They rank 258th in giving up 3 pt attempts, but their % shot against them in an uber elite #4. The 2 games I remember were at UNC and at NC State and both teams got up 26-30 from deep. They were mostly good looks I thought. Not seemingly any more contested than what I'm used to seeing from anyone else. And guys who typically shoot it well were like 5-22 combined from UNC and it was similar from NC State and that's at home. I thought at first maybe they just keep getting teams to have their McLemore take the 3's, but that wasn't it. Then I thought maybe they just were super contested, and while some where that wasn't the consistent vibe I saw. And just the other night they let one guy get up 19 all on his own and he made 10 of them. Maybe they do what they've done to some other teams and just suffocate us, but I feel like if Bryce/Harper/Danjel are shooting it well they are going to be completely screwed because our guys will go out well behind that arc and keep draining them.
Truthfully Purdue had them beat and they only had one shooter going. They lost that game because they gave UVA an unusual number of FT's by UVA standards and they got crushed on the offensive glass, not something that UVA really makes a habit of. My head can't wrap itself around this UVA team
the comparison I’m about to make will sound absurd, but the numbers fit better than you’d think just from watching them... but I think the best comparison we’ve faced is Florida
a couple of athletic bigs, but not physically overwhelmingly, and not particularly big offensive threats... 1 big ball handler, heady, but not overly athletic... the difference is Florida has 1 knockdown shooter, 2 streaky guys, and 2 shaky ones... while UVA has 3 knockdown shooters and 2 shaky ones
UVA - 5th adjusted defense (88.8 pts/100 possessions), 353rd adjusted tempo (59.2), 2nd adjusted offense (123 pts/100 possessions)
Florida - 16th adjusted defense (92.3 pts/100 possessions), 344th adjusted tempo (62.8), 63rd adjusted offense (110.5 pts/100 possessions)
HYG’s - 38th defense (96.3 pts/100), 153rd tempo (67.9), 6th offense (121 pts/100)
we’re not the one trick pony people who haven’t watched us all year think we are... when we get in transition we BURY teams - and that’s all people see... but we have flat locked up teams in the half court the last 6 weeks... and our half court offense is more deliberate than the pass it around and randomly fire up 3’s that idiots seem to think we play
that Florida game in the SECT was a little close for comfort, but they made every gd thing they threw at the rim... if UVA shoots 60% from the field and 40% from 3, then god bless them and good luck against Texas Tech in the title game... but if they don’t, you remember how we handled the gators in the Clam
I think a big part will be containing Hunter. He has not put up big offensive numbers since round 1. Oddly, I think you just have to assume those chalkies are going to get some good looks and make them, you just can’t let him go off on you too.
you both bring up similar points, or connected points
it’s simple geometry, and it’s why Jared’s willingness to shoot from damn near 30 feet at times is important for what we do... people want to pull their hair out, but he’s made enough of them - and more importantly has shown a consistent willingness to take them, that he stretches a college defense beyond the point of physically being able to guard the entire court
our scoring area is too large... it’s physically impossible for college players, who have never faced it, to prepare for it... Kentucky guards us better than anyone in the country because they’ve actually seen it enough that Cal knows the best way to approach it, and he’s got a team of 5 stars who are long enough and physically talented enough to come close to covering everywhere they need to cover
Kansas hadn’t played a team like us...
UNC hadn’t played a team like us...
UVA hasn’t played a team like us... they may think they have because they’ve played UNC and NC State who play fast and take a lot of 3’s, but that’s a remedial way of looking at it...
you can’t adjust to guarding the areas of the floor you have to guard against us when we’ve got Jared, Bryce, Danjel, and Mac on the floor... the pace doesn’t get us open, the floor spacing does
BRUCE is a far, far, far, far, far better coach, and much smarter than he’s given credit for... and he knows it, so he’s more than happy to play into it... but don’t let it fool you - he’s figured this out much earlier, and implemented it much better, than anyone else because he’s got the balls to push it to the extremes
We’re playing with house money fam. Stay loose and let the other team worry about the pressure.
I'm watching their game vs Clemson from early in the season right now. Linked below. Guy was going off early and cooled. They move the ball pretty well and make you chase him around a lot. You lose focus and they'll get easy looks, but we've been pretty damn focused on defense since we started this run.
I'm not trying to completely doubt their defense. It's good. I'm just not sure that it's this monster that it gets made out to be. Their pace makes some of these numbers look wonky. And some of this looks related to playing some bad offenses too. They are #6 nationally in defensive efficiency but if you look at "Last 3" they are 100th. And there are quite a few tourney teams that had a tougher run of games that rate ahead of them.
In this game Clemson didn't run many ball screens, but when they did I was not threatened by the way UVA played it. And Clemson got good looks from it too. They just suck offensively and have one weapon who is a big ugly post player.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJNcsrcdu2U
I'm not trying to completely doubt their defense. It's good. I'm just not sure that it's this monster that it gets made out to be. Their pace makes some of these numbers look wonky. And some of this looks related to playing some bad offenses too. They are #6 nationally in defensive efficiency but if you look at "Last 3" they are 100th. And there are quite a few tourney teams that had a tougher run of games that rate ahead of them.
In this game Clemson didn't run many ball screens, but when they did I was not threatened by the way UVA played it. And Clemson got good looks from it too. They just suck offensively and have one weapon who is a big ugly post player.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJNcsrcdu2U
I think this might be the game to watch to see how they defend us, though it does look like we would still get a lot of open looks with our secondary guys and Jared would have the opportunity to knock down some long ones.
Makes a ton of sense. The one thing that separates UVA from a Florida or Kentucky, which you mentioned, is their sharpshooters. Their 3 guys that shoot at or better than 40% from 3 are the difference in a Florida team and a UVA. The physical measurements are about the same. Florida may even have better athletes, but UVA has older, experienced guards who can flat out shoot.
What fellow greggers are making the trip? Like to get a beer with one of you guys.
Over the last month, Auburn has better wins than Virginia. No doubt of that. They were very lucky to get by Purdue. The refs helped a bit with that. Like I'm sure the refs will help them on Saturday. Can the boogs keep the lightening in the bottle without Chuma, like you did yesterday? I don't know. My hunch says Virginia, but I do hope I'm wrong. You're all damn good folks. Unlike the few Virginia fans I've known. I will say, if I were a boog fan, I would prefer Virginia to having to play Texas Tech. I don't envy Michigan State.
Lol, we are gonna annihilate Virginia. It will be a complete destruction of Tony Bennett’s pack line D.
I agree to some extent, but i like this match up better than UK or Michigan State. Will i be surprised if Virginia beats them? No. BUT I won't bet against Bruce and the HYGs. They're finding ways to win. If they can keep the pace turnt they can beat anyone.
I’ll be there. Can only watch the Semis win or lose. Not sure anybody in our group believes that I’ll leave if we win but unless something changes, I really won’t have any choice. I will be with a big group but I’ll let you know where we go Friday night or maybe lunchish Saturday on here.
I land at MSP around 10:30 AM on Friday and I'm trying to line up a shoot around for any fellow Greggers, but a beer AFTERWARD would be nice.
Talked to a buddy on the phone this morning and said I was just calling so he could pinch me to make sure I am not dreaming. I never expected to see Auburn in the FF in my entire lifetime. I didn't think even BRUCE could pull that off. Feel free to shame me for my tragic unbelief.
My oldest gets in after midnight on the day of the Semis & has a trip out Sunday. He HOPES to change it to Tuesday if the good guys pull it off. He saw UVA/UNC in Chapel Hill & saw our last loss in Rupp, so the trend SHOULD hold that he has seen the last three teams live that we conquered on our way to a BOOG NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!!
That was my only option too and I almost pulled the trigger, but just couldn't justify the expense right now. Felt like I would've been too stressed about spending more than I should to fully enjoy the game. If Bunker indications are any sign, we're gonna have a good turnout though
Same. Kind of depressing that I could have gotten tickets for being a ticket holder, but in the end it just didn’t make sense.
Direct flights after the Kansas game were about 300 bucks out of ATL. Hearing people say now they are 1000-2000 just about any route you take. Everybody will have more confidence down the road and prepare accordingly! Law of Bruce.
Was all about location for me. Just too damn expensive for Z with little notice. Plus the wife and I are going to Disney without the kids end of May to celebrate our bdays so that's hanging out there as well.
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We supported the Boogs all regular season in attendance, gotta let the riches take it from here
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